The Tennessee ConserVOLiance

First a history lesson: In the last 100 years, there was only one two-year period, from 1969-1971, when the Tennessee House had a Republican Speaker. It happened in 1969, following the mandated 1-man,1-vote redistricting of the Tennessee Legislature (which reduced the disproportionate strength of the rural counties). After the turbulent 1968 elections, the defection of a democratic representative elected Republican Representative Bill Jenkins as Speaker of the Tennessee House. The 1970 elections returned control of the house to the Democrats. In January, 1971, Bill McKinney, D-Nashville was elected Speaker (and coincidentally a young John Wilder was elected Lt. Governor in the Senate that same year). McKinney lasted only one term and was defeated in the Democratic caucus vote in January of 1973 by Ned Ray McWherter (D-Dresden). Ned Ray served as Speaker of the House until he was elected governor in 1986. He was succeeded as Speaker of the House by his protegé, Rep. Ed Murry (D-Winchester), who served for two terms (1987-1991) before retiring. In 1991, Rep. Jimmy Naifeh (D-Covington) was elected Speaker and has served for the past 17 years.

There were some rumblings after the 2006 elections, at the beginning of the past legislative session in January of 2007, that Naifeh might face opposition from within his own party for the position of Speaker. If ALL of the Republicans were joined by only four dissident Democrats, then those 50 votes could elect a new Speaker and defeat Naifeh. Rep. Frank Buck (D-Doweltown) was the alternate candidate for Speaker most discussed. In the end, all of the Democrats, and most surprisingly NINE Republicans voted to re-elect Naifeh as Speaker.

But now, we are facing a new election for all 99 members of the Tennessee House. Thanks to the incumbent protection act, passed after the Tennessee Tax Revolt in 2001/2002 all candidates for the House must now file early - in April - so that legislators will know whether they have opponents before they face crucial votes towards the end of the legislative session in May.

The Secretary of State’s office has released an unofficial list of candidates for the primaries in August, and the general election in November. There are 195 candidates who have filed for the 99 seats: 91 Democrats, 92 Republicans, and 12 Independents.

But in a sad commentary on the power of incumbency, a full 43 of the 99 state Representatives (22 Republicans and 21 Democrats) have NO opposition in the fall election and are assured of being returned for another two years. There are another 13 seats (7 Republican and 6 Democrat) in which there is more than one candidate filed for the party primary in August, but the primary winner will have no opposition in November.

So, that leaves only 43 out of 99 seats in which there is even the potential for a real November contest between a Democrat candidate and a Republican candidate.

Included in those 43 seats are 7 of the 10 “open” seats. An open seat is one in which the incumbent has chosen not to run for re-election. Three of those “open” seats are guaranteed to remain under the control of the retiring representative’s party. Only Democrats file to run in the 52nd district to replace the retiring Rob Briley. And only Republicans filed to run in the 14th (retiring Park Strader) and 20th (retiring Doug Overbey).

So what makes the Republicans think they can win control of the House in November?

They need to capture four seats currently held by Democrats. They have targeted six, and, there is a realistic chance of capturing them. They probably won’t get all six, but stranger things have happened. And for all those who care about conservative issues (accountable judges, protecting marriage, reducing abortions, protecting the right of parents to homeschool, protecting the right to own firearms), changing the control of the House from Democrat to Republican may be the most important cause to take up between now and November.

The six targeted races are:

• the 2nd district (click for a map), currently held by Rep. Nathan Vaughn (D-Kingsport). His opponent is Tony Shipley
• the 40th district, retired Rep. Frank Buck’s (D-Doweltown) seat has attracted a crowd of 10 candidates (7 Democrats, 2 Republicans, and 1 independent). I like Terri Lynn Weaver in this race.
• the 46th district, currently held by Rep. Stratton Bone (D-Lebanon). His opponent is Albert McCall
• the 48th district, retired Rep. John Hood’s (D-Murfreesboro) seat has five candidates running (2 Democrats, and 3 Republicans)
• the 71st district, retired Rep. Randy Rinks (D-Savannah) has five candidates running (2 Democrats, 2 Republicans, and 1 independent)
• the 77th district, retired Rep. Phillip Pinion’s (D-Union City) seat has six candidates running (4 Democrats and 2 Republicans)

Of course the Democrats have targets of their own. They would love to capture:

• the 47th district, Rep. Judd Matheny (R-Tullahoma) is being challenged by John Greeter
• the 70th district, Rep. Joey Hensley (R-Hohenwald) is being challenged by J.W. Hampton, Sr.
• the 78th district, Rep. Phillip Johnson (R-Pegram) is being challenged by David W. Davidson
• the 79th district, retired Rep. Chris Crider’s (R-Milan) seat - 1 Democrat and 2 Republicans running

I rate the Republicans’ chances of capturing any of the Democrats’ seats better than I do the Democrats’ chances of success.

Now is the time to get involved in the political process. If you have money to invest, do so. If you have time to invest, do so. If you live in one of these ten districts, get involved early and recruit your friends and neighbors. If you don’t live in one of these ten districts, consider giving money anyway… and think about whether you (and perhaps your children) could take some time to volunteer during the campaign.

I’m working with a group that will try to recruit and co-ordinate volunteers for each of these ten races. We think the homeschooling community, especially, can and should make a difference in this historic election year. We’re compiling a list of those interested in helping out. We’ll try to do all our communications by email. If you’re interested and want to be kept up to date, send me an email (rgshearer “at” aol.com) and I will add you to the list.

On November 4th, 2008 (now less than five months away), won’t it be nice as we listen to the news reports of the historic shift in the Tennessee House, to look around, smile, and tell your family and friends that you helped make it happen.

- Rob Shearer
(aka RedHatRob)

Here’s a 3-page report (TN House Races 2008), listing all the candidates in all 99 House races that I’ve compiled. It’s sorted by number of candidates filed, so the most hotly contested races are on page three of the .pdf. Feel free to distribute as widely as possible.