The Tennessee ConserVOLiance

Tennessee conservatives’ support for John McCain may be weak, but the situation for Barack Obama among Democrats in Tennessee is worse.

It is increasingly becoming clear that Tennessee Republican and conservative voters are motivated by the disastrous prospects of an Obama presidency. They may not have been cheerleaders for McCain during the primaries, but they will turn out in November in order to insure that Obama is not elected.

It’s not clear the Tennessee Democrats will be as motivated to vote as the Republicans are.

Recall, that Tennessee Democrats voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton (53.8%) over Barack Obama (40.5%) back on February 5^th. A large percentage of those Democrats who voted for Hillary will wind up voting for McCain. Another large percentage will wind up not voting at all.

This represents an opportunity for Republicans in races all across the state – in the races for US Congress and in the races for the state legislature.

There is the real prospect that Republicans could increase their majority in the State Senate and a real opportunity to capture control of the State House of Representatives. I analyzed some of the ways that might happen in a post last June.

There is also a wild card opportunity for Gerard Donovan, Republican candidate running against Congressman Jim Cooper. Although Obama won Davidson County in the primary (59.1% to 37.6%) over Hillary Clinton, the question arises: Where will those 37.6% Hillary voters go?

Obama won’t be campaigning in Tennessee. He’s conceding it as McCain country. How will Congressman Cooper fare, even in Democratic Davidson Co., with Obama at the top of the ticket? And Cooper also has to run in Cheatham and Wilson counties, where McCain is likely to win overwhelmingly.

Donovan’s best bet is to highlight Rep. Cooper’s commitment as a democrat to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and his early endorsement of Obama. Neither of those associations is likely to be very popular in the 5^th Congressional District.

Cooper is a pro-choice, big government, democratic supporter of Pelosi and Obama. Is that really what the voters of the fifth district want?

Donovan is an articulate, small-government, low-tax Republican. He’s a successful businessman, not a career politician. If he can reach the voters with his message, and point out the substantial differences between his positions and Cooper’s, he has a real shot.

- Rob Shearer (aka RedHatRob)